Global Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) for Border Security Market and Technologies Forecast to 2025

Global Trends, Market Share, Current Technologies, Operating Concept, How to sell, and Forecast by Geography

News articles routinely include border security as governments struggle to find terrorists and criminals in the flood of immigrants looking for a better life.  Internal security is increasingly part of those stories as various groups and individuals attack civilians from within their own nations.  Many, but certainly not all, nations use a single security service for all such domestic threats.

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) have been part of that security effort for more than a decade, with rich nations like the United States and Brazil flying very expensive aircraft on their borders.  You’d think UAVs would then be an easy sale to any nation with such problems.  You’d be wrong, and sometimes right.

Yes, this is a confused and confusing market.  This new report cuts through that confusion to first explain the technologies involved and then forecast their markets by regions.  It adds value to that insight with two scenarios, one covering today’s reality and one forecasting each region’s reaction to a successful cross-border terror attack.  The results are unexpected given the complexities of national privacy laws (affect internal security operations) and military inventories (allow security agencies to immediately increase border patrols without buying UAVs).

Who is This Report For?
If you have anything do with security along borders or within a nation, this report is a must, particularly if you are a:
  • Border Security Agency Leader
  • Domestic Law Enforcement Leader
  • Border and Internal Security Intelligence Professional
  • Business Leader or Business Developer
  • UAV Manufacturer
  • Sensor and Communication Manufacturer
  • Government Contractor
  • Civil Government Leader or Planner

Multiple Scenarios

To provide a truly comprehensive coverage and analysis, this report examines two different scenarios:
  • Scenario I:  Persistent Pressure on Developed Nation Borders
  • Scenario II:  UAVs Seal Borders (Probably Following a Terror Attack)

Major Findings
  • Gaps in UAV Use
  • Aerial Surveillance as Alternative to People  
  • Preferred Border and Internal Security UAVs  
  • Expensive Payloads    
  • Optical verses Electronic Sensors
  • American Market Domination    
  • Impact of Cost    
  • Resistance to Change    
  • Airspace Regulators Resist without clear Legal Authority
  • Civil Liberty Concerns    
  • Internal Stress within US Border Patrol
  • Secrecy Standard among Border and Internal Security Agencies

Major Conclusions
  • The Civil UAV Market Will Not Develop as Hoped
  • Global Military UAV Market verses Global Border and Internal Security UAV Market
  • Operating Concepts Enhance Future Sales
  • How to Prepare for Emergency Flight in Civilian Airspace
  • Market Shift from Defense to Security
  • Not Necessary to Follow Military UAV Model
  • Border and Internal Security is often a Mix of Counter-Smuggling and Military
  • Current Capabilities are not Integrated/Coordinated
  • Corruption May Influence Acquisition Decisions
  • International Politics Limit Surveillance
  • Importance of Partners   

Uniquely, this forecast also includes many “Opportunity Alerts”, very focused marketing tips included in context where a business developer should capitalize on customer needs.
1            Introduction
1.1         Scope of This Report
1.2         Language Disclaimer and Further Information
1.3         Methodology
1.4         Why “UAV”?
1.4.1      Military vs. Civil vs. Commercial UAVs
1.5         Opportunity Alerts
1.6         Basic Scenario Assumptions
1.6.1      Why Scenarios?
1.6.2      Scenario I – Persistent Pressure on Developed Nation Borders
1.6.3      Scenario II – UAVs Seal Borders (Probably Following a Terror Attack)
1.7         Who is This Report For?
1.7.1      How Vendors, Service Providers & Business Developers Should Use this Report
1.7.2      Opportunity Alert
1.7.3      How Border and Internal Security Professionals Should Use this Report
1.7.4      How Policy Makers, Budget Planners and Political Leaders Should Use this Report
1.8         How to Extract High Quality Graphics
1.9         Major Findings
1.9.1      Gaps in UAV Use
1.9.2      Aerial Surveillance as Alternative to People
1.9.3      Preferred Border and Internal Security UAVs
1.9.4      Expensive Payloads
1.9.5      Optical verses Electronic Sensors
1.9.6      American Market Domination
1.9.7      Impact of Cost
1.9.8      Resistance to Change
1.9.9      Airspace Regulators Resist without clear Legal Authority
1.9.10    Civil Liberty Concerns
1.9.11    Opportunity Alert
1.9.12    Internal Stress within US Border Patrol
1.9.13    Secrecy Standard among Border and Internal Security Agencies
1.9.14    Opportunity Alert:
1.10       Major Conclusions
1.10.1    The Civil UAV Market Will Not Develop as Hoped
1.10.2    Global Military UAV Market verses Global Border and Internal Security UAV Market
1.10.3    Operating Concepts Enhance Future Sales
1.10.4    How to Prepare for Emergency Flight in Civilian Airspace
1.10.5    Market Shift from Defense to Security
1.10.6    Not Necessary to Follow Military UAV Model
1.10.7    Border and Internal Security is often a Mix of Counter-Smuggling and Military
1.10.8    Current Capabilities are not Integrated/Coordinated
1.10.9    Corruption May Influence Acquisition Decisions
1.10.10  International Politics Limit Surveillance
1.10.11  Importance of Partners
1.11       Current Global Market for UAVs in Border Security
1.12       Emerging Markets – Capabilities and Technologies
1.13       How and Where to Create UAV Markets
1.13.1    Understand Your Customers
1.14       Notes for all data
1.15       Major Tables and Graphs
1.15.1    Global UAV for Border and Internal Security Market Forecast by Region – 2017-2025
1.15.2    Border and Internal Security UAV Procurement Forecast by Region– 2017-2025
1.16       Regional Markets – Specific Sales Opportunities
1.16.1    Opportunity Alert
1.16.2    Opportunity Alert

2          UAV Industry – Current Technologies
2.1       Stratospheric UAVs
2.1.1    Opportunity Alert
2.2       Jet Stream UAVs
2.3       High Altitude UAVs
2.4       Medium Altitude UAVs
2.5       Low Altitude UAVs
2.6       Micro UAVs
2.7       Aerostats
3          Border and Internal Security – Global Areas of Concern & Types of Threats
3.1       Africa – Border Concerns and Threats
3.2       Central Asia – Border Concerns and Threats
3.2.1    Opportunity Alert
3.3       Europe – Border Concerns and Threats
3.4       Near East – Border Concerns and Threats
3.5       North America – Border Concerns and Threats
3.6       South America – Border Concerns and Threats
3.7       South East Asia & Oceania – Border Concerns and Threats
3.7.1    Opportunity Alert

4          Border and Internal Security UAV – Operating Concept
4.1       What is an Operating Concept?
4.1.1    The Danger in Having No Operating Concept
4.2       Example – Military Operating Concept
4.3       Does the US Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) Have an Operating Concept?
4.3.1    Opportunity Alert
4.3.2    Operating Concept – Business Opportunity
4.3.3    US Border Patrol Aviation Plans
4.3.4    Opportunity Alert
4.4       Planning and Operating Overview
4.4.1    Assume Corruption
4.4.2    Opportunity Alert
4.5       UAV Operations for Border Security
4.5.1    The Sense and Avoid Hurdle (Civil Airspace)
4.5.2    Border Agents’ Desired Capabilities (Critical)
4.5.3    Integrated Operating Concept
4.5.4    Small Nation Example: Trinidad & Tobago
4.6       Cost Effectiveness
4.6.1    Opportunity Alert
4.6.2    UAVs are Expensive
4.7       UAV Sensor Coverage Area – Overview
4.8       Typical UAV Sensor Coverage Areas
4.8.1    Sensor Coverage Graphic Overview
4.8.2    Stratospheric UAV Sensor Coverage
4.8.3    Jet Stream UAV Sensor Coverage
4.8.4    High Altitude UAV Sensor Coverage
4.8.5    Medium Altitude UAV Sensor Coverage
4.8.6    Low Altitude UAV Sensor Coverage
4.8.7    Micro UAV Sensor Coverage
4.9       UAV Radio Coverage Overview
4.10     Typical UAV Radio Coverage Areas
4.10.1  Stratospheric UAV Radio Coverage
4.10.2  High Altitude UAV Radio Coverage
4.10.3  Medium Altitude UAV Radio Coverage
4.10.4  Low Altitude UAV Radio Coverage
4.10.5  Micro UAV Radio Coverage
4.11     Sample UAV Selection Problem
4.11.1  Altitude Realities
4.11.2  Sample Problem
4.11.3  Multiple Results

5          How to Sell Border and Internal Security UAVs
5.2       Understanding the Numbers
5.3       Range of Market Forecasts or: Confusion Reigns
5.4       US Market Dominance – Decline or Increase?
5.5       So, How to Sell?
5.5.1    Lobbying Works
5.5.2    Know your Customer
5.5.3    Indian Bureaucracy
5.5.4    Opportunity Alert
5.5.5    Know Your UAV System

6          Global Market Forecasts by Region
6.1       North America
6.1.1    North America: UAV Market Opportunities
6.1.2    United States – Mexico Border Overview
6.1.3    Mexico’s Southern Border Overview
6.1.4    Scenario I - North America: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type
6.1.5    Scenario II - North America: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type
6.1.6    Scenario I vs. Scenario II - North America: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type
6.2       South America
6.2.1    South America: UAV Market Opportunities
6.2.2    South America: Narcotic Smuggling or Transshipment Nations
6.2.3    Scenario I - South America: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type
6.2.4    Scenario II - South America: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type
6.2.5    Scenario I vs. Scenario II - South America: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type
6.3       Europe
6.3.1    Europe: UAV Market Opportunities
6.3.2    Europe: Narcotic Smuggling or Transshipment Nations
6.3.3    Scenario I - Europe: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type
6.3.4    Scenario II - Europe: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type
6.3.5    Scenario I vs. Scenario II - Europe: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type
6.4       Near East
6.4.1    Near East: UAV Market Opportunities
6.4.2    Near East: Narcotic Smuggling or Transshipment Nations
6.4.3    Scenario I – Near East: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type
6.4.4    Scenario II – Near East: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type
6.4.5    Scenario I vs. Scenario II - Near East: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type
6.5       Central Asia
6.5.1    Central Asia: UAV Market Opportunities
6.5.2    Central Asia: Narcotic Smuggling or Transshipment Nations
6.5.3    Scenario I – Central Asia: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type
6.5.4    Scenario II – Central Asia: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type
6.5.5    Scenario I vs. Scenario II - Central Asia: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type
6.6       Africa
6.6.1    Africa: UAV Market Opportunities
6.6.2    Africa: Narcotic Smuggling or Transshipment Nations
6.6.3    Scenario I – Africa: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type
6.6.4    Scenario II – Africa: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type
6.6.5    Scenario I vs. Scenario II - Africa: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type
6.7       East Asia & Oceania
6.7.1    Asia and Western Pacific: UAV Market Opportunities
6.7.2    East Asia and Western Pacific: Narcotic Smuggling or Transshipment Nations
6.7.3    Australia and South Pacific: UAV Market Opportunities
6.7.4    Scenario I – East Asia & Oceania: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type
6.7.5    Scenario II – East Asia & Oceania: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type
6.7.6    Scenario I vs. Scenario II - East Asia & Oceania: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type

Appendices

Acronyms



 
List of Tables

Table 1 - Scenario I - Global Market Forecasts by Region by [$Million] – 2017–2025
Table 2 - Joint UAV Group Classification (JCOE CONOPS)
Table 3 - Range of Opinions on Global UAV Procurement by [$Millions] – 2010–2015
Table 4 - Scenario I - Global Market Forecasts by Region by [$Million] – 2017–2025
Table 5 - Scenario I - Global Market Forecasts Share by Region by [%] – 2017-2025
Table 6 - Scenario I - North America: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type by [$Millions] – 2017-2025
Table 7 - Scenario II - North America: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type by [$Millions] – 2017-2025
Table 8 - Scenario I vs. Scenario II - North America: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type by [$Millions] – 2017-2025
Table 9 - Scenario I - North America: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type by [$Millions] – 2017-2025
Table 10 - Scenario II - South America: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type by [$Millions] – 2017-2025
Table 11 - Scenario I vs. Scenario II - South America: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type by [$Millions] – 2017-2025
Table 12 - Scenario I - Europe: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type by [$Millions] – 2017-2025
Table 13 - Scenario II - Europe: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type by [$Millions] – 2017-2025
Table 14 - Scenario I vs. Scenario II - Europe: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type by [$Millions] – 2017-2025
Table 15 - Scenario I - Near East: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type by [$Millions] – 2017-2025
Table 16 - Scenario II – Near East: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type by [$Millions] – 2017-2025
Table 17 - Scenario I vs. Scenario II - Near East: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type by [$Millions] – 2017-2025
Table 18 - Scenario I - Central Asia: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type by [$Millions] – 2017-2025
Table 19 - Scenario II - Central Asia: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type by [$Millions] – 2017-2025
Table 20 - Scenario I vs. Scenario II - Central Asia: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type by [$Millions] – 2017-2025
Table 21 - Scenario I - Africa: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type by [$Millions] – 2017-2025
Table 22 - Scenario II - Africa: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type by [$Millions] – 2017-2025
Table 23 - Scenario I vs. Scenario II - Africa: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type by [$Millions] – 2017-2025
Table 24 - Scenario I - East Asia & Oceania: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type by [$Millions] – 2017-2025
Table 25 - Scenario II - East Asia & Oceania: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type by [$Millions] – 2017-2025
Table 26 - Scenario I vs. Scenario II - East Asia & Oceania: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type by [$Millions] – 2017-2025


List of Figures

Figure 1 - Global UAV Market Forecasts Comparison
Figure 2 - Aurora’s Skate Micro UAV In-Flight
Figure 3 - BlueBird SkyLite
Figure 4 - Elbit Systems Skylark 1LE
Figure 5 - Indra Mantis
Figure 6 - Scenario I - Global Market Forecasts by Region by [$Million] – 2017–2025
Figure 7 - Ugandan Air Force Private with Raven
Figure 8 - MQ-4C Triton (Global Hawk)
Figure 9 - Airbus Zephyr 7
Figure 10 - Stratospheric UAV Airship Design
Figure 11 - Global Observer: Stratospheric UAV Design
Figure 12 - Heron TP: Jet Stream UAV
Figure 13 - Seeker 400: High Altitude UAV
Figure 14 - Shadow: Medium Altitude UAV
Figure 15 - Uqab II: Low Altitude UAV
Figure 16 - XFC: Micro UAV
Figure 17 - German Soldier Hand Launching a Micro UAV
Figure 18 - Conventional Aerostat Design
Figure 19 - Cutting Edge Aerostat Design
Figure 20 - Aerostat Designed for Low Wind Drag
Figure 21 - African – Border and Internal Security – Areas of Concern & Types of Threats
Figure 22 - Indian Searcher Mark II
Figure 23 - Central Asia – Border and Internal Security – Areas of Concern & Types of Threats
Figure 24 - European - Border and Internal Security – Areas of Concern & Types of Threats
Figure 25 - Near East - Border and Internal Security – Areas of Concern & Types of Threats
Figure 26 - North America - Border and Internal Security – Areas of Concern & Types of Threats
Figure 27 - South America - Border and Internal Security – Areas of Concern & Types of Threats
Figure 28 - South East Asia & Oceania – Border and Internal Security – Areas of Concern & Types of Threats
Figure 29 - Example Military High Level Operational Concept
Figure 30 - US Border Patrol Network Plan
Figure 31 - SBInet Plan Shown as an Operating Concept
Figure 32 - Sensor Operating Concept
Figure 33 - Communication Operating Concept
Figure 34 - Integrated Operating Concept
Figure 35 - Small Nation Operating Concept, UAVs Only
Figure 36 - Small Nation Operating Concept, UAVs & Aerostats
Figure 37 - Typical US Border Surveillance Tower Placements
Figure 38 - Detailed View of US Border Tower Spacing
Figure 39 - Article on Homeland Security Predator Audit
Figure 40 - Typical Sensor Coverage Areas (Radar, Laser & Optical)
Figure 41 - Typical Stratospheric UAV Coverage Area (Radar, Laser & Optical)
Figure 42 - Typical Jet Stream UAV Coverage Area (Radar, Laser & Optical)
Figure 43 - Typical High Altitude UAV Coverage Area (Radar, Laser & Optical)
Figure 44 - Typical Medium Altitude UAV Coverage Area (Radar, Laser & Optical)
Figure 45 - Typical Low Altitude UAV Coverage Area (Laser & Optical)
Figure 46 - Typical Micro UAV Coverage Area (Optical)
Figure 47 - Best-Case Radio Coverage Diameters
Figure 48 - Stratospheric UAV Radio Coverage Diameters
Figure 49 - Jet Stream UAV Radio Coverage
Figure 50 - High Altitude UAV Radio Coverage
Figure 51 - Medium Altitude UAV Radio Coverage
Figure 52 - Low Altitude UAV Radio Coverage
Figure 53 - Micro UAV Radio Coverage
Figure 54 - Example UAV Coverage Area Over Higher Elevation
Figure 55 - Coverage with Multiple UAVs (Infringe Border)
Figure 56 - Coverage with Multiple UAVs (Respect Border)
Figure 57 - Coverage with Multiple UAVs (Eliminate Gaps)
Figure 58 - Coverage with Multiple UAVs (Higher Altitude)
Figure 59 - Coverage with Multiple UAVs (Multiple Altitudes)
Figure 60 - Range of Opinions on Global UAV Procurement by [$Millions] – 2010-2015
Figure 61 - Scenario I - Global Market Forecasts by Region by [$Million] – 2017–2025
Figure 62 - Scenario I - Global Market Forecasts Behavior by Region by [%] – 2017-2025
Figure 63 - Scenario I - North America: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type by [$Millions] – 2017-2025
Figure 64 - Scenario II - North America: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type by [$Millions] – 2017-2025
Figure 65 – Scenario I vs. Scenario II - North America: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type by [$Millions] – 2017-2025
Figure 66 - Scenario I - South America: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type by [$Millions] – 2017-2025
Figure 67 - Scenario II - South America: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type by [$Millions] – 2017-2025
Figure 68 - Scenario I vs. Scenario II - South America: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type by [$Millions] – 2017-2025
Figure 69 - Turkey’s Anka High Altitude UAV
Figure 70 - Scenario I - Europe: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type by [$Millions] – 2017-2025
Figure 71 - Scenario II - Europe: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type by [$Millions] – 2017-2025
Figure 72 - Scenario I vs. Scenario II - Europe: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type by [$Millions] – 2017-2025
Figure 73 - Scenario I Near East: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type by [$Millions] – 2017-2025
Figure 74 - Scenario II – Near East: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type by [$Millions] – 2017-2025
Figure 75 - Scenario I vs. Scenario II - Near East: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type by [$Millions] – 2017-2025
Figure 76 - Scenario I - Central Asia: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type by [$Millions] – 2017-2025
Figure 77 - Scenario II - Central Asia: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type by [$Millions] – 2017-2025
Figure 78 - Scenario I vs. Scenario II - Central Asia: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type by [$Millions] – 2017-2025
Figure 79 - Scenario I - Africa: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type by [$Millions] – 2017-2025
Figure 80 - Scenario II - Africa: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type by [$Millions] – 2017-2025
Figure 81 - Scenario I vs. Scenario II - Africa: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type by [$Millions] – 2017-2025
Figure 82 - Chinese CH-3 Armed UAV
Figure 83 - Chinese Low Altitude UAV
Figure 84 - Scenario I - East Asia & Oceania: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type by [$Millions] – 2017-2025
Figure 85 - Scenario II - East Asia & Oceania: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type by [$Millions] – 2017-2025
Figure 86 - Scenario I vs. Scenario II - East Asia & Oceania: UAV Market Forecast by UAV Type by [$Millions] – 2017-2025

 
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Report Code: MF170454
Published: July 19, 2017
Pages: 217
Analyst: Mr. Ed Herlik
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