Stratospheric UAV Payloads - Technology and Market Forecast 2012-2021

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), flying for months or years above the Jet Stream, will form a new communication and sensing infrastructure. That will simply be a modern version of roads, canals, telegraphs, railroads, air mail, telephone, satellite, etc.: infrastructures that were all supported with government contracts until commercial markets matured.

This report examines, analyses and predicts the evolution of technologies, markets and outlays for the payloads that will serve aboard extremely enduring or persistent UAVs flying above the Jet Stream. While flying in the atmosphere, they will behave much like stationary satellites.

National security payloads will emphasize sensors like cameras or signals intelligence receivers plus robust radio relay.

Commercial payloads will emphasize very high data rate communications with some sensors like visible light and multi-spectral cameras.

“Near Space” UAVs will draw defense orders away from both the Jet Stream (Global Hawk) and High Altitude (Reaper) markets. That opportunity will be open to new vendors with payloads optimized for extreme altitude and extreme endurance. Today’s military UAV markets are nearly closed to new entrants.

If you are a payload vendor, payload operator, business leader or business developer in the UAV, insurance, overhead imagery, entertainment, mobile telephone and communication industries, this report will educate you on major disruptive technologies and markets that will completely change your competitive environment.

The report covers:

  • Optical Payloads
  • Radio Payloads
  • National Security Future Capabilities
  • Future Commercial Applications
  • Direct Broadcast Television and Radio
  • Wireless Internet
  • Bundled Communication (Phone, Entertainment, Internet)
  • Civilian, Government and Scientific Sensors
  • Military, Defense and Homeland Security Capabilities

Table of Content

1. Introduction
1.1. Scope of This Report
1.2. Language Disclaimer
1.3. Methodology
1.3.1. Forecast Value
1.3.2. Terms & Context
1.3.3. Redundancy
1.4. Forecast Scenarios
1.4.1. Scenario I – Resistance to Change
1.4.2. Scenario II – Limited Access to Developed Airspace
1.5. Who Needs this Forecast?
1.5.1. Business Leaders & Business Developers
1.5.2. The Insurance Industry
1.5.3. UAV Manufacturers
1.5.4. Payload Manufacturers
1.5.5. Payload Operators
1.5.6. Civil Government Leaders & Planners
1.6. Value Beyond Forecasts
1.6.1. Wide Disagreement among UAV Market Forecasts
1.6.2. MiG’s Added Value
1.7. About the Lead Analyst
1.7.1. Value of Knowing the Lead Analyst

2. Executive Summary
2.1. What are Stratospheric Payloads?
2.2. What are Unmanned Aerial Vehicles?
2.3. Aircraft Types
2.4. Persistence
2.5. Impending Military Spending Crash
2.6. Major Findings
2.7. Major Conclusions
2.8. Important Global Market Tables and Graphs
2.8.1. On-Demand Imagery & Sensing
2.8.2. Persistent Communication
2.8.3. Internet Access
2.8.4. Persistent Commercial Imagery & Sensing
2.8.5. Persistent Military Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance

3. Current Categories & Technologies
3.1. UAV Categories
3.2. US Air Force UAV Categories
3.3. NATO UAV Categories
3.4. UAV Manufacturing Nations
3.5. UAV Altitude-Based Categories & Types
3.5.1. Altitude Matters
3.5.2. Stratospheric UAVs
3.5.3. Jet Stream UAVs

4. Current Markets and Uses
4.1. Highest Flying UAVs
4.1.1. Military
4.1.2. Scientific
4.2. Free-Flying Balloon Radio Relay

5. UAV Payloads Overview
5.1. Optical Payloads and Coverage Overview
5.1.1. Effect of Look-Down Angle on Sensor Performance
5.1.2. Sensor Coverage Graphic Overview
5.1.3. Stratospheric UAV Sensor Coverage
5.1.4. Jet Stream UAV Sensor Coverage
5.2. Radio Payloads and Coverage Overview
5.2.1. Effect of Look-Up Angle on Radio Coverage
5.2.2. Radio Coverage Graphic Overviews

6. Stratospheric Payloads Drivers & Inhibitors
6.1. Drivers
6.1.1. Counter-Insurgency & Counter-IED
6.1.2. Multiple-Use Systems
6.1.3. Unique Capabilities
6.1.4. Altitude
6.1.5. Reduced Capability Costs
6.1.6. Cost Effectiveness
6.1.7. One Technology Brings all Communication Capabilities
6.1.8. Next Lucrative Aviation Market
6.1.9. Opportunity Alert
6.1.10. Personal Communication Shortfalls
6.1.11. Mobile Television Shortfalls
6.2. Inhibitors
6.2.1. Airspace Restrictions – US & Europe
6.2.2. FAA Misleading US Congress and Public.
6.2.3. Commercial Competition
6.2.4. Invested Infrastructure
6.2.5. Radio Frequency Interference & Regulations
6.2.6. Opportunity Alert
6.2.7. Technical Challenges
6.2.8. US Defense Department Culture
6.2.9. US & European Export Restrictions
6.3. Persistent UAV X-Prize?

7. Future Capabilities and Uses
7.1. National Security
7.1.1. Military & Counter-Insurgency
7.1.2. Opportunity Alert
7.1.3. Virtual Team Member Operating Concept
7.1.4. Opportunity Alert
7.1.5. Border Security
7.1.6. Border Security Operating Concept
7.2. Commercial Applications
7.2.1. Imagery
7.2.2. Imagery Operating Concept
7.2.3. Communications Relay (Internet, Cell Phone, etc.)
7.2.4. Communications Operating Concept
7.2.5. Opportunity Alert
7.2.6. Direct Broadcast Entertainment
7.2.7. Direct Broadcast Entertainment Operating Concept
7.2.8. Scientific
7.2.9. Science Operating Concept

8. Forecasts by Market or Capability
8.1. Imagery and Sensing
8.2. Persistent Communication
8.3. The Bottom Line?
8.4. Cellular Telephone
8.4.1. Opportunity Alert
8.5. Direct Broadcast Television and Radio
8.5.1. Scenario I – Resistance to Change
8.5.2. Scenario II – Limited Access to Developed Airspace
8.6. Wireless Internet
8.6.1. Internet Growth and Penetration
8.6.2. Internet Access (Accounts)
8.6.3. Average Asian Internet Access Account Value
8.6.4. Internet Access (Market Value)
8.7. Bundled Communication (Phone, Entertainment, Internet)
8.7.1. Scenario I – Resistance to Change
8.7.2. Scenario II – Limited Access to Developed Airspace
8.8. Civilian Government & Scientific Sensors
8.8.1. Scenario I – Resistance to Change
8.8.2. Scenario II – Limited Access to Developed Airspace
8.9. Military, Defense & Homeland Security
8.9.1. Military Communication Relay Market?
8.10. Persistent Commercial Imagery & Sensing
8.10.1. Opportunity Alert

9. Example Flight Vehicle or UAV Vendors & Products
9.1. Aircraft
9.1.1. QinetiQ’s Zephyr Stratospheric UAV
9.1.2. Boeing’s Phantom Eye Stratospheric UAV
9.2. Airships
9.2.1. Lockheed-Martin’s High Altitude Long Endurance – Demonstrator
9.2.2. Global Near Space Services’ Star♦Light

Appendices

Glossary and Abbreviations

List of Figures

Figure 1 – Collected Global UAV Market Forecasts
Figure 2 – Comparison Between US UAV Spending and Commercial Potential
Figure 3 – Global Hawk
Figure 4 – Lockheed TR-1
Figure 5 – U.S. Defense Spending Declines 1945 – 2011
Figure 6 – DoD Acquisition Plus R&D spending by [$Million] – 2009-2015
Figure 7 – AeroVironment’s Global Observer
Figure 8 – Solar-Electric Aircraft Flight Envelope
Figure 9 – Netflix Internet Movie Provider Creates Television Series
Figure 10 – Notional Stratospheric UAV Airship
Figure 11 – Impoverished Indian Cell Customer
Figure 12 – Mobile Skype-calls Over Wireless Internet Advertisement
Figure 13 – Global On-Demand Imagery & Sensing Market by [$Million] – Scenario I and II Snapshot – 2012-2021
Figure 14 – Global Stratospheric Payloads Communication Market by [$Billion] – Scenario I and II Snapshot – 2012-2021
Figure 15 – Global Internet Access Accounts Served by Persistent UAVs Market Value by [$Billion] – Scenario I and II Snapshot – 2012-2021
Figure 16 – Global Stratospheric Payload Commercial Imagery & Sensing Market by [$Million] – Scenario I and II Snapshot – 2012-2021
Figure 17 – Global Persistent UAV Military ISR Market by [$Billion] – Scenario I and II Snapshot – 2012-2021
Figure 18 – UAV Manufacturing Nations – by Capability
Figure 19 – Sample Airship Profiles at Low Reynolds Numbers
Figure 20 – HiSentinel prototype Stratospheric Airship UAV
Figure 21 – Stratospheric UAV Airship Design
Figure 22 – Global Observer: Stratospheric UAV Design
Figure 23 – Heron TP: Jet Stream UAV
Figure 24 – Wildfire Image from Global Hawk
Figure 25 – NASA Global Hawk
Figure 26 – Space Data Corporation Balloon with Controller
Figure 27 – Space Data Corporation Altitude Control Valve Assembly
Figure 28 – Effect of Optical Look Angles
Figure 29 – Typical Sensor Coverage Areas (Radar, Laser & Optical)
Figure 30 – Typical Stratospheric Payload Coverage Area (Radar, Laser & Optical)
Figure 31 – Typical Jet Stream Payload Coverage Area (Radar, Laser & Optical)
Figure 32 – Best-Case Radio Coverage Diameters
Figure 33 – Actual Kabul Radio Coverage Analysis
Figure 34 – Stratospheric UAV Radio Coverage Diameters
Figure 35 – Jet Stream UAV Radio Coverage Diameters
Figure 36 – Afghanistan IED Toll – 2001-2010
Figure 37 – Cell Phone Coverage in Colorado, USA
Figure 38 – Internet Protocol Television Advertisement
Figure 39 – Popular Mechanics 4G Service Evaluation
Figure 40 – Popular Mechanics Magazine Cover on Flying Safety
Figure 41 – Silicon Valley Consumer without Broadband
Figure 42 – Aerospace America Magazine on DARPA
Figure 43 – Ambush Article
Figure 44 – Virtual Team Member & Communication Relay Operating Concept
Figure 45 – Imagery Operations Operating Concept
Figure 46 – Communication Relay (with Laser Power) Operating Concept
Figure 47 – Direct Broadcast Entertainment Operating Concept
Figure 48 – Global On-Demand Imagery & Sensing Market by [$Million] – Scenario I and II Snapshot – 2012-2021
Figure 49 – Global Stratospheric Payloads Communication Market by [$Billion] – Scenario I and II Snapshot – 2012-2021
Figure 50 – Internet Accounts by Region by [Millions of Accounts] – 2012-2021
Figure 51 – Global Internet Access Accounts showing 2%, 5%, 10% and 20% by [Millions of Accounts] – 2012-2021
Figure 52 – Global Internet Accounts Served by Persistent UAVs by [Millions of Accounts] – Scenario I and II Snapshot – 2012-2021
Figure 53 – Persistent UAV Internet Accounts on Global Internet Accounts by [Millions of Accounts] Scenario I and II – 2012-2021
Figure 54 – Asian Communication Annual Spending [$/Year]
Figure 55 – Global Internet Access Accounts Served by Persistent UAVs Market Value by [$Billion] – Scenario I and II Snapshot – 2012-2021
Figure 56 – Global Persistent UAV Military ISR Market by [$Billion] – Scenario I and II Snapshot – 2012-2021
Figure 57 – Global Stratospheric Payload Commercial Imagery & Sensing Market by [$Million] – Scenario I and II Snapshot – 2012-2021
Figure 58 – QinetiQ’s Zephyr Stratospheric UAV launching in 2010
Figure 59 – Boeing’s Vulture Stratospheric UAV Aircraft Concept
Figure 60 – Boeing’s Phantom Eye Stratospheric UAV
Figure 61 – Lockheed-Martin’s HALE-D Airship Prototype
Figure 62 – Promised HALE-D 2009 Flight Demonstration
Figure 63 – GNSS Star♦Tower Aerostat
Figure 64 – GNSS Star♦Light Stratospheric Airship


List of Tables

Table 1 – U-2 Technical Data
Table 2 – Global Hawk Technical Data
Table 3 – DoD UAS Procurement Plus R&D Estimates by [$Million] – 2009-2015
Table 4 – Joint UAV Group Classification (JCOE CONOPS)
Table 5 – NATO UAV Categories
Table 6 – Global On-Demand Imagery & Sensing Market by [$Million] – Scenario I and II Snapshot – 2012-2021
Table 7 – Global Stratospheric Payloads Communication Market by [$Billion] – Scenario I and II Snapshot – 2012-2021
Table 8 – Cell Phone vs. Internet Penetration [Millions]
Table 9 – Cell Phone vs. Internet Penetration vs. Income
Table 10 – Internet Account Growth and Penetration: from 2000 to 2010
Table 11 – Internet Accounts by Region by [Millions of Accounts] – 2012-2021
Table 12 – Global Internet Accounts Served by Persistent UAVs by [Millions of Accounts] – Scenario I and II Snapshot – 2012-2021
Table 13 – Asian Communication Annual Spending by [$Million] Compared to Populations by [Millions]
Table 14 – Global Internet Access Accounts Served by Persistent UAVs Market Value [$Billion] – Scenario I and II Snapshot – 2012-2021
Table 15 – Global Persistent UAV Military ISR Market by [$Billion] – Scenario I and II Snapshot – 2012-2021
Table 16 – Global Stratospheric Payload Commercial Imagery & Sensing Market by [$Million] – Scenario I and II Snapshot – 2012-2021

License description Price in US$
1-User PDF License US $2,995.00
5-User PDF License US $3,995.00
Site PDF License US $5,995.00
Enterprise PDF License US $7,995.00

Single User License: This license allows for use of a report by one person. This person may use the report on any computer, and may print out the report, but may not share the report (or any information contained therein) with any other person or persons. Unless a Departmental License, a Site License or a Global Site License is purchased, a Single User License must be purchased for every person that wishes to use the report within the same enterprise. Customers who infringe these license terms are liable for a Global Site license fee.

5-User License: This license allows for use of a report by five people within the same enterprise location. Each of these people may use the report on any computer, and may print out the report, but may not share the report (or any information contained therein) with any other person or persons. Customers who infringe these license terms are liable for a Global Site license fee.

Site License: This license allows for use of a report by an unlimited number of people within the same enterprise location. Each of these people may use the report on any computer, and may print out the report, but may not share the report (or any information contained therein) with any person or persons outside of the enterprise location. Customers who infringe these license terms are liable for a Global Site license fee.

Global Site License: This license allows for use of a report by an unlimited number of people within the same enterprise worldwide. Each of these people may use the report on any computer, and may print out the report, but may not share the report (or any information contained therein) with any other person or persons outside of the enterprise.

Sample Request

Report Code: MF140194
Published: November 1, 2014
Pages: 133
Analyst: Mr. Ed Herlik
1-User PDF License $2,995.00
5-User PDF License $3,995.00
Site PDF License $5,995.00
Enterprise PDF License $7,995.00
Request more info

Have a question?

If you have any questions contact us by email or by phone +31 (0)20 486 7590