Small Calibre Military Ammunition - Market and Technology Forecast to 2033
Small Calibre Military Ammunition - Market and Technology Forecast to 2033
Market forecast by Region and Ammunition Calibre. Country Analysis, Market and Technology Overview including Critical Raw Materials, Opportunity Analysis, and Leading Company Profiles
Market forecast by Region and Ammunition Calibre. Country Analysis, Market and Technology Overview including Critical Raw Materials, Opportunity Analysis, and Leading Company Profiles
The small calibre military ammunition market is entering a multi-year upcycle. Elevated consumption linked to the war in Ukraine and the resetting of NATO readiness targets have shifted demand from peacetime “sustain” levels to durable, programme-based buys. Europe currently leads the expansion, with the United States remaining a strong, steady segment—together underpinning a robust pipeline for qualified suppliers and investors.
Supply remains the gating factor. Bottlenecks in primers, energetics (e.g., nitrocellulose), brass, and skilled labour are constraining output, while new case-draw, primer, bullet-assembly and LAP lines typically require one to three years to reach stable, qualified production. For businesses prepared to act, this imbalance creates attractive pricing, backlog visibility, and an opportunity to lock in long-term customer relationships.
Winning strategies centre on scalable resilience: multi-year framework agreements and predictable training-load volumes to keep lines warm; flexible tooling to swing efficiently across 5.56/7.62/9/.50 and 6.8×51 families; vertical integration or long-term offtakes in primers, powders and brass; and productivity levers such as automation, yield management and OEE. Interoperability and NATO/STANAG conformance remain essential differentiators for exportability and speed to qualification.
Market structure will stay fragmented as nations pursue ammunition autonomy, opening room for partnerships, JVs, and targeted M&A. At the same time, trade frictions and tariff regimes raise input costs and complicate cross-border sourcing—favouring operators that diversify suppliers, regionalise footprints, dual-qualify materials and secure long-dated energetics and energy contracts. For business leaders, the message is clear: the cycle is strong, capacity is scarce, and early movers that build resilient, compliant, cost-competitive platforms will set the pace.
This study examines procurement pathways for small-calibre military ammunition and assesses how the war in Ukraine is reshaping the market. The scale and value of the opportunity favour both new entrants and well-established manufacturers seeking to expand share. Even if the conflict ends in the near term, enduring security requirements and stockpile replenishment will sustain robust demand for years to come.The study provides a model of the market size, in-depth insights procurement opportunities, mapping out the scope, scale, and timelines of opportunities worldwide. It also offers a solid understanding of the current situation in the small calibre military ammunition business landscape and what should be expected for the future.
Covered in this study
- Overview: A strong insight of the Small Military Ammunition market in the military market during 2025-2033, including highlights of the demand drivers, trends, and challenges. It also provides a snapshot of the spending with respect to regions as well as segments and sheds light on the emergence of new technologies.
- Market Dynamics: Snapshots into the technological developments in the small calibre military ammunition market. It also analyses the market landscape in key regions, how that is shaped by the war in Ukraine and the political and regulatory efforts undertaken to address a series of issues.
- Segment Analysis: Insights into the various calibres, end-use and regions from a segmental perspective and a detailed analysis of factors influencing the market for each segment.
- Regional Analysis: Insights into the systems market from a regional perspective and a detailed analysis of factors influencing the market for each region.
- Competitive landscape Analysis: Analysis of the competitive landscape of this industry. It provides an overview of key companies, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a SWOT analysis.
Segmentation
The market is segmented by Region and Calibre of the ammunition.
Region
- North America
- Europe
- Asia Pacific
- Middle East & Africa
- Latin America
- 5.45mm
- 5.56mm
- 5.7mm
- 6.5mm
- 6.8mm
- 7.62mm
- 8.6mm (.338)
- 9mm
- 0.45APC (11.43mm)
- 12.7mm (.50 cal.)
Reasons to buy
- This report provides a global view of efforts to scale small-calibre military ammunition production, both to meet Ukraine’s wartime consumption and to replenish national stockpiles.
- It identifies and rigorously analyses the forces reshaping the market, including policy decisions, cross-industry collaborations, supply-chain redesign, and the availability of critical raw materials.
- It maps regional production profiles and assistance flows to Ukraine, clarifying how these dynamics are redirecting procurement worldwide.
- Finally, it highlights the principal opportunities and risks so decision-makers can act with confidence to grow their businesses.
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1 Executive Summary
1.1 Trends and Insights
1.2 Main Findings
1.2.1 Small Calibre Military Ammunition market summary by Region
1.2.2 Small Calibre Military Ammunition market summary by Calibre
1.3 Key Conclusions
2 Introduction
2.1 Scope
2.2 Definitions
2.3 Methodology
2.4 Who will benefit from this study?
3 Technologies and Developments
3.1 Technology overview
3.2 Types of small calibre ammunition
3.3 Ammunition without lead – green ammunition
3.4 A new calibre for the US military - 6.8mm
3.5 Calibre modularity in rifles
3.6 Polymer and metallic lightweight ammunition
3.7 Technologies to manage inventories
3.8 Anti-drone munition
3.9 Technological developments in Russia and China
4 Critical Raw Materials
5 Market Overview
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Small calibre ammunition market volume distribution over forecast period by Region
5.3 Competitive landscape
5.4 Europe
5.4.1 European Union
5.4.2 EU Instruments: SAFE, ASAP and EDIRPA
5.4.3 Baltic region
5.4.4 Nordic region
5.4.5 France
5.4.6 Poland
5.5 North America
5.5.1 United States
5.5.2 Canada
5.6 Overview of the Chinese and Russian markets
6 Market Dynamics and Forecast Factors
6.1 Market segmentation
6.2 Drivers
6.3 Trends
6.4 Opportunities
6.5 Challenges
6.6 Forecast Factors and Notes
7 Country Analysis
7.1 Overview
7.2 North America
7.2.1 United States
8 Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
8.1 Small Calibre Military Ammunition market by Region overview
8.2 Small Calibre Military Ammunition market Region by Calibre overview
8.2.1 North America market by Calibre overview
8.2.2 Europe market by Calibre overview
8.2.3 Asia Pacific market by Calibre overview
8.2.4 Middle-East & Africa market by Calibre overview
8.2.5 Latin America market by Calibre overview
9 Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre
9.1 Small Calibre Military Ammunition market by Calibre overview
9.2 Small Calibre Military Ammunition market Calibre by Region overview
9.2.1 5.45 mm market by Region overview
9.2.2 5.56 mm market by Region overview
9.2.3 5.7 mm market by Region overview
9.2.4 6.5 mm market by Region overview
9.2.5 6.8 mm market by Region overview
9.2.6 7.62 mm market by Region overview
9.2.7 8.6 mm market by Region overview
9.2.8 9 mm market by Region overview
9.2.9 11.43 mm market by Region overview
9.2.10 12.7 mm market by Region overview
9.2.11 12 Gauge market by Region overview
10 Opportunity Analysis
10.1 Introduction
10.2 Compound Growth Rates
10.2.1 By Region
10.2.2 By Calibre
11 Companies
11.1 BAE Systems Plc
11.1.1 Introduction
11.1.2 Products and services
11.1.3 Recent Contracts
11.1.4 SWOT Analysis
11.2 Beretta Holding
11.2.1 Introduction
11.2.2 Products and services
11.2.3 Recent contracts and developments
11.2.4 SWOT Analysis
11.3 Czechoslovak Group
11.3.1 Introduction
11.3.2 Products and services
11.3.3 Recent contracts and developments
11.3.4 SWOT Analysis
11.4 EDGE Group PJSC
11.4.1 Introduction
11.4.2 SWOT Analysis
11.5 FN Herstal
11.5.1 Introduction
11.5.2 Products and services
11.5.3 Recent contracts and developments
11.5.4 SWOT Analysis
11.6 GGG - Giraite Ginluotes Gamykla
11.6.1 Introduction
11.7 MKE (Makine ve Kimya Endüstrisi) Inc.
11.7.1 Introduction
11.7.2 Products and services
11.7.3 Recent developments and contracts
11.7.4 SWOT Analysis
11.8 Nammo AS
11.8.1 Introduction
11.8.2 Products and services
11.8.3 Recent developments
11.8.4 Recent Contracts
11.8.5 SWOT Analysis
11.9 Olin Winchester
11.9.1 Introduction
11.9.2 Products and services
11.9.3 Recent Contracts
11.9.4 SWOT Analysis
11.10 PGZ Group S.A.- Polska Grupa Zbrojeniowa
11.10.1 Introduction
11.10.2 Products and services
11.10.3 Recent developments and contracts
11.10.4 Recent Contracts
11.10.5 SWOT Analysis
11.11 Poongsan
11.11.1 Introduction
11.11.2 Products and services
11.11.3 SWOT Analysis
11.12 SIA Ammunity
11.12.1 Introduction
11.12.2 Small Calibre Military Ammunition
11.13 Sig Sauer
11.13.1 Introduction
11.13.2 Products and services
11.13.3 Recent developments
11.13.4 Recent Contracts
11.13.5 SWOT Analysis
11.14 Thales
11.14.1 Introduction
11.14.2 Products and Services
11.14.3 Recent Developments
11.14.4 SWOT Analysis
12 Results and Conclusions
13 About Market Forecast
13.1 General
13.2 Contact us
13.3 Disclaimer
13.4 License
Appendix A: Companies Mentioned
Appendix B: Abbreviations
1.1 Trends and Insights
1.2 Main Findings
1.2.1 Small Calibre Military Ammunition market summary by Region
1.2.2 Small Calibre Military Ammunition market summary by Calibre
1.3 Key Conclusions
2 Introduction
2.1 Scope
2.2 Definitions
2.3 Methodology
2.4 Who will benefit from this study?
3 Technologies and Developments
3.1 Technology overview
3.2 Types of small calibre ammunition
3.3 Ammunition without lead – green ammunition
3.4 A new calibre for the US military - 6.8mm
3.5 Calibre modularity in rifles
3.6 Polymer and metallic lightweight ammunition
3.7 Technologies to manage inventories
3.8 Anti-drone munition
3.9 Technological developments in Russia and China
4 Critical Raw Materials
5 Market Overview
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Small calibre ammunition market volume distribution over forecast period by Region
5.3 Competitive landscape
5.4 Europe
5.4.1 European Union
5.4.2 EU Instruments: SAFE, ASAP and EDIRPA
5.4.3 Baltic region
5.4.4 Nordic region
5.4.5 France
5.4.6 Poland
5.5 North America
5.5.1 United States
5.5.2 Canada
5.6 Overview of the Chinese and Russian markets
6 Market Dynamics and Forecast Factors
6.1 Market segmentation
6.2 Drivers
6.3 Trends
6.4 Opportunities
6.5 Challenges
6.6 Forecast Factors and Notes
7 Country Analysis
7.1 Overview
7.2 North America
7.2.1 United States
8 Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
8.1 Small Calibre Military Ammunition market by Region overview
8.2 Small Calibre Military Ammunition market Region by Calibre overview
8.2.1 North America market by Calibre overview
8.2.2 Europe market by Calibre overview
8.2.3 Asia Pacific market by Calibre overview
8.2.4 Middle-East & Africa market by Calibre overview
8.2.5 Latin America market by Calibre overview
9 Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre
9.1 Small Calibre Military Ammunition market by Calibre overview
9.2 Small Calibre Military Ammunition market Calibre by Region overview
9.2.1 5.45 mm market by Region overview
9.2.2 5.56 mm market by Region overview
9.2.3 5.7 mm market by Region overview
9.2.4 6.5 mm market by Region overview
9.2.5 6.8 mm market by Region overview
9.2.6 7.62 mm market by Region overview
9.2.7 8.6 mm market by Region overview
9.2.8 9 mm market by Region overview
9.2.9 11.43 mm market by Region overview
9.2.10 12.7 mm market by Region overview
9.2.11 12 Gauge market by Region overview
10 Opportunity Analysis
10.1 Introduction
10.2 Compound Growth Rates
10.2.1 By Region
10.2.2 By Calibre
11 Companies
11.1 BAE Systems Plc
11.1.1 Introduction
11.1.2 Products and services
11.1.3 Recent Contracts
11.1.4 SWOT Analysis
11.2 Beretta Holding
11.2.1 Introduction
11.2.2 Products and services
11.2.3 Recent contracts and developments
11.2.4 SWOT Analysis
11.3 Czechoslovak Group
11.3.1 Introduction
11.3.2 Products and services
11.3.3 Recent contracts and developments
11.3.4 SWOT Analysis
11.4 EDGE Group PJSC
11.4.1 Introduction
11.4.2 SWOT Analysis
11.5 FN Herstal
11.5.1 Introduction
11.5.2 Products and services
11.5.3 Recent contracts and developments
11.5.4 SWOT Analysis
11.6 GGG - Giraite Ginluotes Gamykla
11.6.1 Introduction
11.7 MKE (Makine ve Kimya Endüstrisi) Inc.
11.7.1 Introduction
11.7.2 Products and services
11.7.3 Recent developments and contracts
11.7.4 SWOT Analysis
11.8 Nammo AS
11.8.1 Introduction
11.8.2 Products and services
11.8.3 Recent developments
11.8.4 Recent Contracts
11.8.5 SWOT Analysis
11.9 Olin Winchester
11.9.1 Introduction
11.9.2 Products and services
11.9.3 Recent Contracts
11.9.4 SWOT Analysis
11.10 PGZ Group S.A.- Polska Grupa Zbrojeniowa
11.10.1 Introduction
11.10.2 Products and services
11.10.3 Recent developments and contracts
11.10.4 Recent Contracts
11.10.5 SWOT Analysis
11.11 Poongsan
11.11.1 Introduction
11.11.2 Products and services
11.11.3 SWOT Analysis
11.12 SIA Ammunity
11.12.1 Introduction
11.12.2 Small Calibre Military Ammunition
11.13 Sig Sauer
11.13.1 Introduction
11.13.2 Products and services
11.13.3 Recent developments
11.13.4 Recent Contracts
11.13.5 SWOT Analysis
11.14 Thales
11.14.1 Introduction
11.14.2 Products and Services
11.14.3 Recent Developments
11.14.4 SWOT Analysis
12 Results and Conclusions
13 About Market Forecast
13.1 General
13.2 Contact us
13.3 Disclaimer
13.4 License
Appendix A: Companies Mentioned
Appendix B: Abbreviations
List of figures
Figure 1: Small Calibre Military Ammunition market summary by RegionFigure 2: Small Calibre Military Ammunition market summary by Calibre
Figure 3: Barrett Firearms M22 sniper rifle
Figure 4: Polymer-case 0.50” ammunition
Figure 5: 5.45mm pellet anti-drone munition
Figure 6: Critical Raw Materials producing countries
Figure 7: Critical Raw Materials dependence [%] and volume [mt] by producing countries
Figure 8: Market volumes over the forecast period per region
Figure 9: European defence planning path
Figure 10: The Sig Sauer M7 rifle
Figure 11: US Army soldiers firing an M240B machine gun
Figure 12: Market segmentation Small Calibre market
Figure 13: Sig Sauer’s 6.8mm calibre rounds
Figure 14: Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
Figure 15: Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region %
Figure 16: North America Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre
Figure 17: North America - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre
Figure 18: Europe Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre
Figure 19: Europe - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre
Figure 20: Asia Pacific Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre
Figure 21: Asia Pacific - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre
Figure 22: Middle-East & Africa Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre
Figure 23: Middle-East & Africa - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre
Figure 24: Latin America Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre
Figure 25: Latin America - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre
Figure 26: Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre [US$ millions]
Figure 27: Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre %
Figure 28: 5.45 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 29: 5.45 mm - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 30: 5.56 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 31: 5.56 mm - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 32: 5.7 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 33: 5.7 mm - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 34: 6.5 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 35: 6.5 mm - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 36: 6.8 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 37: 6.8 mm - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 38: 7.62 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 39: 7.62 mm - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 40: 8.6 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 41: 8.6 mm - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 42: 9 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 43: 9 mm - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 44: 11.43 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 45: 11.43 mm - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 46: 12.7 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 47: 12.7 mm - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 48: 12 Gauge Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 49: 12 Gauge - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 50: Small Calibre Military Ammunition Size by Region
Figure 51: Small Calibre Military Ammunition CAGR by Region in US$ millions
Figure 52: Small Calibre Military Ammunition Size by Calibre
Figure 53: Small Calibre Military Ammunition CAGR by Calibre in US$ millions
List of tables
Table 1: Small Calibre Military Ammunition market summary by Region in US$ millionsTable 2: Small Calibre Military Ammunition market summary by Calibre in US$ millions
Table 3: Critical Raw Materials used in Small Calibre Military Ammunition
Table 4: Critical Raw Materials - Annual production from low-risk countries (LRC) versus required production for Small Calibre Military Ammunition
Table 5: Market activity
Table 6: Country groupings in market sizing
Table 7: Modelling per region.
Table 8: Small Calibre Military Ammunition Market Share by Country
Table 9: Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
Table 10: North America Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre [US$ millions]
Table 11: Europe Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre [US$ millions]
Table 12: Asia Pacific Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre [US$ millions]
Table 13: Middle-East & Africa Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre [US$ millions]
Table 14: Latin America Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre [US$ millions]
Table 15: Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre [US$ millions]
Table 16: 5.45 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
Table 17: 5.56 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
Table 18: 5.7 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
Table 19: 6.5 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
Table 20: 6.8 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
Table 21: 7.62 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
Table 22: 8.6 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
Table 23: 9 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
Table 24: 11.43 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
Table 25: 12.7 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
Table 26: 12 Gauge Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
BAE Systems
Day & Zimmermann
DynCorp International
Federal
FN Browning
FN Herstal
General Dynamics – Ordnance & Tactical Systems
General Dynamics – Ordnance & Tactical Systems Canada
GGG (Giraite Ginluotes Gamykla)
JPEO A&A – Joint Program Executive Office for Armaments & Ammunition
Kalashnikov Group
Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace AS
Nammo
Nibe Defence & Aerospace
Nitrotol OÜ
Olin/Winchester
Patria Oy
PGZ Mesko
Remington
Rheinmetall Expal
Rostec
SIA Ammunity
Sig Sauer
Speer
Swedish Astor Group AB
Techcrim
The Kinetic Group
Tula Ammo
Day & Zimmermann
DynCorp International
Federal
FN Browning
FN Herstal
General Dynamics – Ordnance & Tactical Systems
General Dynamics – Ordnance & Tactical Systems Canada
GGG (Giraite Ginluotes Gamykla)
JPEO A&A – Joint Program Executive Office for Armaments & Ammunition
Kalashnikov Group
Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace AS
Nammo
Nibe Defence & Aerospace
Nitrotol OÜ
Olin/Winchester
Patria Oy
PGZ Mesko
Remington
Rheinmetall Expal
Rostec
SIA Ammunity
Sig Sauer
Speer
Swedish Astor Group AB
Techcrim
The Kinetic Group
Tula Ammo
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| Report Code: | MF252512 |
| Published: | September 30, 2025 |
| Pages: | 150 (A4) |
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