Shifting political and security landscape setting the ground for strong demand in the medium and large calibre military ammunition

Amsterdam, NL - November 17, 2025 -

The global defence industry is entering a critical turning point as the war in Ukraine accelerates ammunition consumption to levels not seen in decades. Western nations, particularly in Europe, have discovered that their stockpiles and industrial capacity fall far short of NATO’s 30-day requirement, exposing vulnerabilities in the face of high-intensity conflict. Governments are now rushing to expand reserves, with urgent calls for ammunition production and supply chains to scale up rapidly.

Industry leaders warn, however, that the solution will not come overnight. Building new production lines takes up to three years, forcing companies to explore immediate alternatives such as acquiring underutilized factories and reinforcing lower-tier suppliers. While demand is soaring, the sector faces the challenge of balancing urgent short-term needs with sustainable long-term growth—ensuring the current ramp-up is more of a marathon than a sprint. Analysts predict the market will become more fragmented and fiercely competitive, particularly in Europe, as nations seek greater autonomy in defence manufacturing.

Adding to the complexity, global trade tensions and new tariffs threaten to disrupt supply chains and increase production costs. With U.S. tariff measures expected to take effect from mid-2025, experts warn that ripple effects could be felt worldwide, shaking both economic stability and defence planning. As the world’s largest economy moves toward protectionist policies, the stakes for the global ammunition market have never been higher.

The market is projected to reach up to US$603 billion in the 2025-2032 period, growing with a CAGR of 2.2%. Such a growth will continue to stretch production planning and supply chains, which will last for the future, even if a resolution of the Ukrainian war brings a small reduction on the overall requirements.

Market Forecast’s study “Medium and Large Calibre Military Ammunition – Market and Technology Forecast to 2033” captures the developments in the market, the new landscape that is being rapidly formed, and offers insight into the opportunities available in this market.

The “Medium and Large Calibre Military Ammunition – Market and Technology Forecast to 2033” study is available on the MF Inteligencebase platform as single study and as part of a subscription to all MF Defence & Aerospace studies.

Robotic system 1 - Image Source: MSM Group