Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) for Border Security - Global Market & Technologies Outlook 2013-2021

The use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) in border security missions around the world is expanding rapidly as nations apply lessons from NATO UAV Procurement ForecastUAV operations to their border and national security needs. This expansion, which began with the US, Brazil and Israel, will create new markets and new business opportunities. That’s particularly true for integrated capabilities guided by an Operating Concept and turnkey packages that include equipment, training, operations and maintenance. Small nations are discovering this technology. Smaller UAV types will especially benefit in these new markets where the established players have less influence and the more complex UAVs have less relevance.

This new report is the only available research that examines, analyses and predicts the evolution of Border Security markets and the relevant UAV technologies in light of the whole global market.

It is also the only UAV report of any kind that lays out a clear path to profit; it is far more than just market predictions. As with all Market Info Group UAV forecasts, readers will find an Operating Concept tying the most common border security technologies together into the capabilities border agents demand. They will also find clear instructions on which nations need these UAVs, what relevant foreign aid they receive from the US and how to approach those governments.

This unique report also analyses and forecasts global UAV procurement trends as the foundation for Border Security details. Both valuable data sets are presented by region and by UAV type.

The report covers these technologies:

  • Stratospheric UAVs
  • Jet Stream UAVs
  • High Altitude UAVs
  • Medium Altitude UAVs
  • Low Altitude UAVs
  • Micro UAVs
  • Aerostats

Table of Content

1. Introduction ............................................... 18
1.1. Scope of This Report ....................................... 18
1.2. Language Disclaimer and Further Information ...................... 19
1.3. Methodology ........................................... 19
1.4. Why “UAV”? ............................................ 20
1.4.1. Military vs. Civil vs. Commercial UAVs ...................... 22
1.5. Opportunity Alerts ......................................... 22
1.6. Basic Scenario Assumptions.................................. 23
1.6.1. Why Scenarios? ................................... 23
1.6.2. Scenario I – Persistent Pressure on Developed Nation Borders ....... 27
1.6.3. Scenario II – UAVs Seal Borders (Probably Following a Terror
Attack) ......................................... 28
1.7. Who is This Report For? ..................................... 31
1.7.1. How Vendors, Service Providers & Business Developers Should Use
this Report ...................................... 33
1.7.2. Opportunity Alert 1 .................................. 33
1.7.3. Opportunity Alert 2 .................................. 34
1.7.4. How Border Security Professionals Should Use this Report .......... 34
1.7.5. How Policy Makers, Budget Planners and Political Leaders Should
Use this Report .................................... 36
1.8. How to Extract High Quality Graphics ............................. 37

2. Executive Summary ........................................... 38
2.1. Major Findings ........................................... 38
2.1.1. Gaps in UAV Use .................................... 38
2.1.2. Aerial Surveillance as Alternative to People .................... 38
2.1.3. Preferred Border Security UAVs ......................... 38
2.1.4. Expensive Payloads ................................ 39
2.1.5. Optical verses Electronic Sensors .......................... 39
2.1.6. American Market Domination ........................... 39
2.1.7. Impact of Cost ...................................... 40
2.1.8. Resistance to Change ................................ 40
2.1.9. Airspace Regulators Resist without clear Legal Authority ........... 41
2.1.10. Civil Liberty Concerns ................................ 42
2.1.11. Internal Stress within US Border Patrol ..................... 43
2.1.12. Secrecy Standard among Border Security Agencies ............ 43
2.2. Major Conclusions ........................................ 44
2.2.1. The Civil UAV Market Will Not Develop as Hoped ................ 45
2.2.2. Global Military UAV Market verses Global Border Security UAV
Market ......................................... 45
2.2.3. Operating Concepts Enhance Future Sales .................... 45
2.2.4. How to Prepare for Emergency Flight in Civilian Airspace .......... 46
2.2.5. Market Shift from Defense to Security ....................... 46
2.2.6. Not Necessary to Follow Military UAV Model .................. 47
2.2.7. UAVs Make Up Large Portion of Flight Operations but Not Spending .... 47
2.2.8. Border Security is often a Mix of Counter-Smuggling and Military .... 47
2.2.9. Current Capabilities are not Integrated/Coordinated ............. 48
2.2.10. Corruption May Influence Acquisition Decisions ................ 48
2.2.11. International Politics Limit Surveillance ..................... 49
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) for Border Security – Global Market & Technologies Outlook – 2013 - 2021
2.2.12. Importance of Partners ............................... 49
2.3. Current Global Market for UAVs in Border Security .................... 50
2.4. Emerging Markets – Capabilities and Technologies ................... 50
2.5. How and Where to Create UAV Markets ........................... 51
2.5.1. Understand Your Customers ............................ 51
2.5.2. Plan for Fuel Cells ................................... 55
2.6. Notes for all data ........................................ 56
2.7. Major Tables and Graphs ................................... 58
2.7.1. Global UAV Procurement Forecast by Region – 2013-2021 .......... 58
2.7.2. Border Security UAV Procurement Forecast by Region– 2013-2021 ... 60
2.8. Regional Markets – Specific Sales Opportunities .................... 64
2.8.1. Opportunity Alert 1 .................................. 65
2.8.2. Opportunity Alert 2 .................................. 66
2.8.3. Opportunity Alert 3 .................................. 66

3. UAV Industry – Current Technologies ................................ 67
3.1. Stratospheric UAVs ....................................... 70
3.1.1. Opportunity Alert .................................. 71
3.2. Jet Stream UAVs .......................................... 73
3.3. High Altitude UAVs ....................................... 74
3.4. Medium Altitude UAVs ..................................... 75
3.5. Low Altitude UAVs ........................................ 75
3.6. Micro UAVs ............................................. 76
3.7. Aerostats .............................................. 77

4. Border Security – Global Areas of Concern & Types of Threats.............. 80
4.1. Africa – Border Concerns and Threats ............................ 80
4.2. Central Asia – Border Concerns and Threats ....................... 81
4.2.1. Opportunity Alert .................................. 82
4.3. Europe – Border Concerns and Threats ............................ 83
4.4. Near East – Border Concerns and Threats ........................ 84
4.5. North America – Border Concerns and Threats ....................... 85
4.6. South America – Border Concerns and Threats ...................... 86
4.7. South East Asia & Oceania – Border Concerns and Threats ............... 87
4.7.1. Opportunity Alert .................................. 88

5. Border Security UAV – Operating Concept ........................... 89
5.1. What is an Operating Concept? ................................ 89
5.1.1. The Danger in Having No Operating Concept ................. 89
5.2. Example – Military Operating Concept ............................ 91
5.3. Does the US Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) Have an Operating Concept? .... 92
5.3.1. Opportunity Alert .................................. 95
5.3.2. Operating Concept – Business Opportunity .................... 95
5.3.3. US Border Patrol Aviation Plans ......................... 96
5.3.4. Opportunity Alert .................................. 97
5.4. Planning and Operating Overview ............................... 98
5.4.1. Assume Corruption ................................. 98
5.4.2. Opportunity Alert .................................. 99
5.5. UAV Operations for Border Security ............................ 99
5.5.1. The Sense and Avoid Hurdle (Civil Airspace) .................. 100
5.5.1.1. Add Existing Sense and Avoid Technology ............... 100
5.5.1.2. Swarming UAVs ................................. 101
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) for Border Security – Global Market & Technologies Outlook – 2013 - 2021
5.5.2. Border Agents’ Desired Capabilities (Critical) .................. 102
5.5.2.1. Imagery ..................................... 102
5.5.2.2. Communication .................................. 102
5.5.2.3. Control ...................................... 102
5.5.2.4. Processed Intelligence ............................. 103
5.5.2.5. Datalink Security ................................ 104
5.5.3. Integrated Operating Concept ........................... 104
5.5.3.1. Integrated Sensors ............................... 106
5.5.3.2. Integrated Communication .......................... 107
5.5.3.3. Integrated Operating Concept ........................ 108
5.5.3.4. Beyond Integration ................................ 109
5.5.4. Small Nation Example: Trinidad & Tobago ................... 109
5.5.4.1. Small Nation Example: Sensors ....................... 110
5.5.4.2. Small Nation Example: Communications ................ 111
5.5.4.3. Small Nation Example – Explanation ................... 112

6. Border Security UAVs – Sensor & Radio Coverage .................... 114
6.1. Cost Effectiveness ...................................... 114
6.1.1. Opportunity Alert ................................... 116
6.1.2. UAVs are Expensive ................................ 116
6.2. UAV Sensor Coverage Area – Overview ......................... 118
6.3. Typical UAV Sensor Coverage Areas ........................... 119
6.3.1. Sensor Coverage Graphic Overview ....................... 120
6.3.2. Stratospheric UAV Sensor Coverage ...................... 121
6.3.3. Jet Stream UAV Sensor Coverage ....................... 122
6.3.4. High Altitude UAV Sensor Coverage ....................... 123
6.3.5. Medium Altitude UAV Sensor Coverage .................... 124
6.3.6. Low Altitude UAV Sensor Coverage ....................... 125
6.3.7. Micro UAV Sensor Coverage ............................ 126
6.4. UAV Radio Coverage Overview .............................. 127
6.5. Typical UAV Radio Coverage Areas ............................. 128
6.5.1. Stratospheric UAV Radio Coverage ........................ 129
6.5.2. Jet Stream UAV Radio Coverage ......................... 130
6.5.3. High Altitude UAV Radio Coverage ...................... 131
6.5.4. Medium Altitude UAV Radio Coverage ...................... 132
6.5.5. Low Altitude UAV Radio Coverage ...................... 133
6.5.6. Micro UAV Radio Coverage ........................... 134
6.6. Sample UAV Selection Problem ................................ 135
6.6.1. Altitude Realities ................................... 135
6.6.2. Sample Problem .................................... 136
6.6.3. Multiple Results .................................. 136
6.6.3.1. Single UAV .................................. 136
6.6.3.2. Multiple UAVs (Infringe Border) ........................ 138
6.6.3.3. Multiple UAVs (Respect Border) ....................... 139
6.6.3.4. Multiple UAVs (Eliminate Gaps) ........................ 140
6.6.3.5. Multiple UAVs (Higher Altitude) ........................ 141
6.6.3.6. Multiple UAVs (Multiple Altitudes) ..................... 142

7. How to Sell Border Security UAVs ................................. 143
7.1. Understanding the Numbers ................................ 144
7.2. Range of Market Forecasts or Confusion Reigns ..................... 145
7.3. US Market Dominance – Decline or Increase? ...................... 148
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) for Border Security – Global Market & Technologies Outlook – 2013 - 2021
7.3.1. US Department of Defense UAV Forecast .................... 149
7.4. So, How to Sell? ......................................... 150
7.4.1. Lobbying Works .................................... 151
7.4.2. Know your Customer ................................ 151
7.4.3. Indian Bureaucracy .................................. 152
7.4.4. Opportunity Alert ................................... 152
7.4.5. Know Your UAV System ............................. 152

8. Global UAV Procurement Forecast by Region – 2013-2021 ................ 154
8.1. US: UAV Procurement Forecast – 2013-2021 ....................... 154
8.1.1. US Border Security Self-Assessment ...................... 154
8.1.2. US: Scenario I – UAV Procurement Forecast .................. 155
8.2. North America: UAV Procurement Forecast – 2013-2021 .............. 157
8.2.1. North America: UAV Market Opportunities .................... 157
8.2.1.1. North America: US Military-Related Foreign Aid Funds ......... 158
8.2.2. North America: Narcotic Smuggling or Transshipment Nations ...... 159
8.2.3. United States – Mexico Border Overview ................... 159
8.2.4. Mexico’s Southern Border Overview ....................... 160
8.3. South America: UAV Procurement Forecast – 2013-2021 .............. 161
8.3.1. South America: UAV Market Opportunities ................... 161
8.3.2. South America: US Military-Related Foreign Aid Funds ............ 161
8.3.3. South America: Narcotic Smuggling or Transshipment Nations ...... 162
8.4. Europe: UAV Procurement Forecast – 2013-2021 .................... 163
8.4.1. Europe: UAV Market Opportunities ...................... 163
8.4.2. Europe: US Military-Related Foreign Aid Funds ............... 165
8.4.3. Europe: Narcotic Smuggling or Transshipment Nations ............ 166
8.5. Near East: UAV Procurement Forecast – 2013-2021 .................. 167
8.5.1. Near East: UAV Market Opportunities ..................... 167
8.5.2. Near East: US Military-Related Foreign Aid Funds ............. 167
8.5.3. Near East: Narcotic Smuggling or Transshipment Nations .......... 168
8.6. Central Asia: UAV Procurement Forecast – 2013-2021 .................. 169
8.6.1. Central Asia: UAV Market Opportunities .................... 169
8.6.2. Central Asia: US Military-Related Foreign Aid Funds ............. 170
8.6.3. Central Asia: Narcotic Smuggling or Transshipment Nations ....... 170
8.7. Africa: UAV Procurement Forecast – 2013-2021 ...................... 171
8.7.1. Africa: UAV Market Opportunities ........................ 171
8.7.2. Africa: US Military-Related Foreign Aid Funds ................. 172
8.7.3. Africa: Narcotic Smuggling or Transshipment Nations ........... 172
8.8. East Asia & Oceania – Procurement Forecast – 2013–2021 ............. 173
8.8.1. Asia and Western Pacific: UAV Market Opportunities ............ 174
8.8.2. East Asia and Western Pacific: US Military-Related Foreign Aid
Funds ........................................ 175
8.8.3. East Asia and Western Pacific: Narcotic Smuggling or Transshipment
Nations ......................................... 175
8.8.4. Australia and South Pacific: UAV Market Opportunities ............ 175
8.9. Scenario I – Global UAV Procurement Forecast – by Region ............ 177
8.10. Scenario II – Global UAV Procurement Forecast – by Region .............. 180

9. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles for Border Security – Procurement Forecast by
Region – 2013-2021
.......................................... 182
9.1. Scenario I – Global Unmanned Aerial Vehicles for Border Security –
Procurement Forecast by Region – 2013-2021 ..................... 182
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) for Border Security – Global Market & Technologies Outlook – 2013 - 2021
9.2. Scenario II – Global UAVs for Border Security – Procurement Forecast by
Region – 2013-2021 ...................................... 186
9.3. Scenario I vs. Scenario II Comparison – Global UAVs for Border Security
Procurement Forecast – 2013-2021 ............................. 188
9.4. Africa – Unmanned Aerial Vehicles for Border Security – Procurement
Forecast by System Type – 2013-2021 ........................... 189
9.4.1. Africa – Scenario I – UAVs for Border Security – Procurement
Forecast by System Type – 2013-2021 ..................... 189
9.4.2. Africa – Scenario II – UAVs for Border Security – Procurement
Forecast by System Type – 2013-2021 ..................... 192
9.4.3. Africa – Scenario I vs. Scenario II Comparison – UAVs for Border
Security Procurement Forecast – 2013-2021 ................ 195
9.5. Central Asia – Unmanned Aerial Vehicles for Border Security – Procurement
Forecast by System Type – 2013-2021 ........................... 196
9.5.1. Central Asia – Scenario I – UAVs for Border Security – Procurement
Forecast by System Type – 2013-2021 ..................... 196
9.5.2. Central Asia – Scenario II – UAVs for Border Security – Procurement
Forecast by System Type – 2013-2021 ..................... 199
9.5.3. Central Asia – Scenario I vs. Scenario II Comparison – UAVs for
Border Security Procurement Forecast – 2013-2021 ............. 201
9.6. Europe – Unmanned Aerial Vehicles for Border Security – Procurement
Forecast by System Type – 2013-2021 ........................... 202
9.6.1. Europe – Scenario I – UAVs for Border Security – Procurement
Forecast by System Type – 2013-2021 ..................... 202
9.6.2. Europe – Scenario II – UAVs for Border Security – Procurement
Forecast by System Type – 2013-2021 ..................... 205
9.6.3. Europe – Scenario I vs. Scenario II Comparison – UAVs for Border
Security Procurement Forecast– 2013-2021 ................. 207
9.7. Near East – Unmanned Aerial Vehicles for Border Security – Procurement
Forecast by System Type – 2013-2021 ........................... 208
9.7.1. Near East – Scenario I – UAVs for Border Security – Procurement
Forecast by System Type – 2013-2021 ..................... 208
9.7.2. Near East – Scenario II – UAVs for Border Security – Procurement
Forecast by System Type – 2013-2021 ..................... 210
9.7.3. Near East – Scenario I vs. Scenario II Comparison – UAVs for
Border Security Procurement Forecast– 2013-2021 .............. 212
9.8. North America – Unmanned Aerial Vehicles for Border Security –
Procurement Forecast by System Type – 2013-2021 .................. 213
9.8.1. North America – Scenario I – UAVs for Border Security –
Procurement Forecast by System Type – 2013-2021 ............ 213
9.8.2. North America – Scenario II – UAVs for Border Security –
Procurement Forecast by System Type – 2013-2021 ............ 216
9.8.3. North America – Scenario I vs. Scenario II Comparison – UAVs for
Border Security Procurement Forecast– 2013-2021 .............. 218
9.9. South America – Unmanned Aerial Vehicles for Border Security –
Procurement Forecast by System Type – 2013-2021 .................. 219
9.9.1. South America – Scenario I – UAVs for Border Security –
Procurement Forecast by System Type – 2013-2021 ............ 219
9.9.2. South America – Scenario II – UAVs for Border Security –
Procurement Forecast by System Type – 2013-2021 ............ 222
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) for Border Security – Global Market & Technologies Outlook – 2013 - 2021
9.9.3. South America – Scenario I vs. Scenario II Comparison – UAVs for
Border Security Procurement Forecast– 2013-2021 .............. 224
9.9.4. East Asia & Oceania – Scenario I – UAVs for Border Security –
Procurement Forecast by System Type – 2013-2021 ............ 225
9.9.5. East Asia & Oceania – Scenario II – UAVs for Border Security –
Procurement Forecast by System Type – 2013-2021 ............ 228
9.9.6. East Asia & Oceania – Scenario I vs. Scenario II Comparison –
UAVs for Border Security Procurement Forecast– 2013-2021 ........ 230

10. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles for Border Security – Global Procurement Forecast
by System Type – 2013-2021
.................................... 231
10.1. Micro UAV – Scenario I – Global Border Security UAV Procurement Forecast
by Region – 2013-2021 ..................................... 236
10.2. Low Altitude UAV – Scenario I – Global Border Security UAV Procurement
Forecast by Region – 2013-2021 ............................... 240
10.3. Medium Altitude UAV – Scenario I – Global Border Security UAV Procurement
Forecast by Region – 2013-2021 ............................... 244
10.4. High Altitude UAV – Scenario I – Global Border Security UAV Procurement
Forecast by Region – 2013-2021 ............................... 248

11. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles for Border Security – Global Operations &
Maintenance Market Forecast by System Type (Scenario I) – 2013-2021
....... 252
11.1. The Significance of O&M Services ............................. 252
11.2. Global UAVs for Border Security – Operations and Maintenance Market
Forecast – 2013-2021 .................................... 253
12. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles for Border Security – Market Forecast by System
Type (Scenario I) – 2013-2021 .................................. 256
Appendices ................................................. 259
Acronyms .................................................. 259
Glossary & Definitions ........................................ 259
UAV Exports .............................................. 261

List of Figures

1. Introduction
Figure 1 - Global UAV Market Forecasts Comparison ........................ 25
Figure 2 - Aurora’s Skate Micro UAV In-Flight .............................. 32
Figure 3 - Falcon UAV in use ......................................... 35

2. Executive Summary
Figure 4 - BlueBird SkyLite ......................................... 53
Figure 5 - Elbit Systems Skylark 1LE ................................... 54
Figure 6 - Indra Mantis ............................................. 54
Figure 7 - Israeli Aerospace Industries’ Fuel Cell Birdseye Low Altitude UAV ............ 55
Figure 8 - Scenario I Global UAV Procurement Forecast by Region [$Millions] –
2013-2021 ............................................. 59
Figure 9 - Scenario I UAVs for Border Security UAV Procurement Forecast by Region
by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 ................................... 61
Figure 10 - Scenario I UAVs for Border Security Procurement Forecast Share by
Region by [%] – 2013, 2017 and 2021 .......................... 62
Figure 11 - Scenario I UAVs for Border Security Procurement Forecast Behavior by
Region by [%] – 2013-2021 ................................. 63
Figure 12 - Ugandan Air Force Private with Raven .......................... 64

3. UAV Industry – Current Technologies
Figure 13 - UAV Manufacturing Nations – by Capability ........................ 69
Figure 14 - Global Hawk C .......................................... 70
Figure 15 - Stratospheric UAV Airship Design .............................. 71
Figure 16 - Global Observer: Stratospheric UAV Design ....................... 72
Figure 17 - Heron TP: Jet Stream UAV .................................. 73
Figure 18 - Seeker 400: High Altitude UAV ................................ 74
Figure 19 - Shadow: Medium Altitude UAV ................................ 75
Figure 20 - Uqab II: Low Altitude UAV .................................... 75
Figure 21 - XFC: Micro UAV .......................................... 76
Figure 22 - German Soldier Hand Launching a Micro UAV ...................... 76
Figure 23 - Conventional Aerostat Design ................................. 77
Figure 24 - Cutting Edge Aerostat Design. ................................ 78
Figure 25 - Aerostat Designed For Low Wind Drag ............................ 79

4. Border Security – Global Areas of Concern & Types of Threats
Figure 26 - African – Border Security – Areas of Concern & Types of Threats ........... 80
Figure 27 - Indian Searcher Mark II ..................................... 81
Figure 28 - Central Asia – Border Security – Areas of Concern & Types of Threats ........ 81
Figure 29 - European - Border Security – Areas of Concern & Types of Threats .......... 83
Figure 30 - Near East - Border Security – Areas of Concern & Types of Threats .......... 84
Figure 31 - North America - Border Security – Areas of Concern & Types of Threats ...... 85
Figure 32 - South America - Border Security – Areas of Concern & Types of Threats ..... 86
Figure 33 - South East Asia & Oceania – Border Security – Areas of Concern &
Types of Threats ......................................... 87

5. Border Security UAV – Operating Concept
Figure 34 - Example Military High Level Operational Concept ..................... 91
Figure 35 - US Border Patrol Network Plan ............................... 94
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) for Border Security – Global Market & Technologies Outlook – 2013 - 2021
Figure 36 - SBInet Plan Shown as an Operating Concept ........................ 94
Figure 37 - Sensor Operating Concept ................................. 106
Figure 38 - Communication Operating Concept ............................. 107
Figure 39 - Integrated Operating Concept ............................... 108
Figure 40 - Small Nation Operating Concept, UAVs Only ....................... 111
Figure 41 - Small Nation Operating Concept, UAVs & Aerostats .................. 112

6. Border Security UAVs – Sensor & Radio Coverage
Figure 42 - Typical US Border Surveillance Tower Placements ................... 115
Figure 43 - Detailed View of US Border Tower Spacing ...................... 115
Figure 44 - Article on Homeland Security Predator Audit ....................... 118
Figure 45 - Typical Sensor Coverage Areas (Radar, Laser & Optical) ............... 120
Figure 46 - Typical Stratospheric UAV Coverage Area (Radar, Laser & Optical) ........ 121
Figure 47 - Typical Jet Stream UAV Coverage Area (Radar, Laser & Optical) ......... 122
Figure 48 - Typical High Altitude UAV Coverage Area (Radar, Laser & Optical) ......... 123
Figure 49 - Typical Medium Altitude UAV Coverage Area (Radar, Laser & Optical) ....... 124
Figure 50 - Typical Low Altitude UAV Coverage Area (Laser & Optical) ............ 125
Figure 51 - Typical Micro UAV Coverage Area (Optical)...................... 126
Figure 52 - Best-Case Radio Coverage Diameters ........................... 127
Figure 53 - Stratospheric UAV Radio Coverage Diameters .................... 129
Figure 54 - Jet Stream UAV Radio Coverage Diameters ........................ 130
Figure 55 - High Altitude UAV Radio Coverage Diameters ..................... 131
Figure 56 - Medium Altitude UAV Radio Coverage Diameters .................. 132
Figure 57 - Low Altitude UAV Radio Coverage Diameters ...................... 133
Figure 58 - Micro UAV Radio Coverage Diameters .......................... 134
Figure 59 - Example UAV Coverage Area Over Higher Elevation ................ 137
Figure 60 - Coverage with Multiple UAVs (Infringe Border) .................... 138
Figure 61 - Coverage with Multiple UAVs (Respect Border) ...................... 139
Figure 62 - Coverage with Multiple UAVs (Eliminate Gaps) .................... 140
Figure 63 - Coverage with Multiple UAVs (Higher Altitude) .................... 141
Figure 64 - Coverage with Multiple UAVs (Multiple Altitudes) .................... 142

7. How to Sell Border Security UAVs
Figure 65 - Range of Opinions on Global UAV Procurement by [$Millions] – 2010-
2015 .............................................. 146

8. Global UAV Procurement Forecast by Region – 2013-2021
Figure 66 - Turkey’s Anka High Altitude UAV ............................. 164
Figure 67 - Chinese CH-3 Armed UAV ................................. 173
Figure 68 - Chinese Low Altitude UAV ................................. 173
Figure 69 - Scenario I Global UAV Procurement Forecast by Region by [$Millions] –
2013-2021 ........................................... 178
Figure 70 - Scenario I Global UAV Market Forecast Share by Region [%] – 2013,
2017 and 2021 .......................................... 179
Figure 71 - Scenario I Global UAV Market Forecast Regional Behaving by [%] –
2013-2021 ........................................... 179
Figure 72 - Scenario II Global UAV Procurement Forecast Share by Region [%] –
2013, 2017 and 2021 ...................................... 181
Figure 73 - Scenario II Global UAV Market Forecast Regional Behaving by [%] –
2013-2021 ........................................... 181
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) for Border Security – Global Market & Technologies Outlook – 2013 - 2021
9. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles for Border Security – Procurement Forecast by Region –
2013-2021
Figure 74 - Scenario I – Global Border Security UAV Procurement Forecast by
Region by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 .............................. 183
Figure 75 - Scenario I – Global Border Security UAV Procurement Forecast Share by
Region by [%] – 2013, 2017 and 2021 ........................... 184
Figure 76 - Scenario I – Global Border Security UAV Procurement Forecast Behavior
by Region by [%] – 2013-2021 .............................. 185
Figure 77 - Scenario II Global Border Security UAV Procurement Forecast by Region
by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 ................................. 186
Figure 78 - Scenario II Global Border Security UAV Procurement Forecast Behavior
by Region by [%] – 2013-2021 .............................. 188
Figure 79 - Scenario I vs. Scenario II Comparison – Global UAVs for Border Security
Procurement Forecast by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 .................. 188
Figure 80 - Scenario I African UAVs for Border Security Procurement Forecast by
System Type by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 .......................... 189
Figure 81 - Scenario I African UAVs for Border Security Procurement Forecast Share
by System Type by [%] – 2013, 2017 and 2021 ..................... 191
Figure 82 - Scenario I African UAVs for Border Security Procurement Forecast
Behavior by System Type by [Millions] – 2013-2021 ................. 191
Figure 83 - Scenario II African UAVs for Border Security Procurement Forecast by
System Type by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 .......................... 192
Figure 84 - Scenario II African UAVs for Border Security Procurement Forecast
Share by System Type by [%] – 2013, 2017 and 2021 ................. 193
Figure 85 - Scenario II African UAVs for Border Security Procurement Forecast
Behavior by System Type by [Millions] – 2013-2021 ................. 194
Figure 86 - Africa – Scenario I vs. Scenario II Comparison – UAVs for Border
Security Procurement Forecast by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 ............. 195
Figure 87 - Scenario I Central Asian UAVs for Border Security Procurement Forecast
by System Type by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 ........................ 196
Figure 88 - Scenario I Central Asian UAVs for Border Security Procurement Forecast
Share by System Type by [%] – 2013, 2017 and 2021 ................. 198
Figure 89 - Scenario I Central Asian Border Security UAV Procurement Forecast
Behavior by System Type by [Millions] – 2013-2021 ................. 198
Figure 90 - Scenario II Central Asian UAVs for Border Security Procurement Forecast
by System Type by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 ........................ 199
Figure 91 - Scenario II Central Asian UAVs for Border Security Procurement Forecast
Share by System Type by [%] – 2013, 2017 and 2021 ................. 200
Figure 92 - Scenario II – Central Asian UAVs for Border Security Procurement
Forecast Behavior by System Type by [Millions] – 2013-2021 ........... 200
Figure 93 - Central Asia Scenario I vs. Scenario II Comparison – UAVs for Border
Security Procurement Forecast by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 ............. 201
Figure 94 - Scenario I European UAVs for Border Security Procurement Forecast by
System Type by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 .......................... 203
Figure 95 - Scenario I European UAVs for Border Security Procurement Forecast
Share by System Type by [%] – 2013, 2017 and 2021 ................. 204
Figure 96 - Scenario I European Border Security UAV Procurement Forecast
Behavior by System Type by [%] – 2013-2021 .................... 204
Figure 97 - Scenario II European UAVs for Border Security Procurement Forecast by
System Type by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 .......................... 205
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) for Border Security – Global Market & Technologies Outlook – 2013 - 2021
Figure 98 - Scenario II European UAVs for Border Security – Procurement Forecast
Share by System Type by [%] – 2013, 2017 and 2021 ................. 206
Figure 99 - Scenario II European Border Security UAV Procurement Forecast
Behavior by System Type by [%] – 2013-2021 .................... 206
Figure 100 - Europe – Scenario I vs. Scenario II Comparison – UAVs for Border
Security Procurement Forecast by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 ............. 207
Figure 101 - Scenario I Near Eastern UAVs for Border Security Procurement
Forecast by System Type by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 .................. 208
Figure 102 - Scenario I Near Eastern Border Security UAV Procurement Forecast
Behavior by System Type by [Millions] – 2013-2021 ................. 209
Figure 103 - Scenario II Near Eastern UAVs for Border Security Procurement
Forecast by System Type by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 .................. 210
Figure 104 - Scenario II Near Eastern Border Security UAV Procurement Forecast
Behavior by System Type by [Millions] – 2013-2021 ................. 211
Figure 105 - Near East – Scenario I vs. Scenario II Comparison – UAVs for Border
Security Procurement Forecast by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 ............. 212
Figure 106 - Scenario I North American UAVs for Border Security Procurement
Forecast by System Type by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 .................. 214
Figure 107 - Scenario I North American UAVs for Border Security Procurement
Forecast Share by System Type by [%] – 2013, 2017 and 2021 ........... 215
Figure 108 - Scenario I North American Border Security UAV Procurement Forecast
Behavior by System Type by [Millions] – 2013-2021 ................. 215
Figure 109 - Scenario II North American UAVs for Border Security Procurement
Forecast by System Type by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 .................. 216
Figure 110 - Scenario II North American Border Security UAV Procurement Forecast
Behavior by System Type by [Millions] – 2013-2021 ................. 217
Figure 111 - North America – Scenario I vs. Scenario II Comparison – UAVs for
Border Security Procurement Forecast by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 .......... 218
Figure 112 - Scenario I South American UAVs for Border Security Procurement
Forecast by System Type by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 .................. 219
Figure 113 - Scenario I South American UAVs for Border Security Procurement
Forecast Share by System Type by [%] – 2013, 2017 and 2021 ........... 220
Figure 114 - Scenario I South American Border Security UAV Procurement Forecast
Behavior by System Type by [Millions] – 2013-2021 ................. 221
Figure 115 - Scenario II South American UAVs for Border Security Procurement
Forecast by System Type by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 .................. 222
Figure 116 - Scenario II South American UAVs for Border Security Procurement
Forecast Share by System Type by [%] – 2013, 2017 and 2021 ........... 223
Figure 117 - Scenario II South American UAVs for Border Security Procurement
Forecast Behavior by System Type by [Millions] – 2013-2021 ........... 223
Figure 118 - South America – Scenario I vs. Scenario II Comparison – UAVs for
Border Security Procurement Forecast by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 .......... 224
Figure 119 - Scenario I – East Asia & Oceania – UAVs for Border Security
Procurement Forecast by System Type by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 ......... 225
Figure 120 - Scenario I – East Asia & Oceania – UAVs for Border Security
Procurement Forecast Share by System Type by [%] – 2013, 2017 and
2021 .............................................. 227
Figure 121 - Scenario I – East Asia & Oceania – UAVs for Border Security
Procurement Forecast Behavior by System Type by [Millions] – 2013-
2021 .............................................. 227
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) for Border Security – Global Market & Technologies Outlook – 2013 - 2021
Figure 122 - Scenario II – East Asia & Oceania – UAVs for Border Security
Procurement Forecast by System Type by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 ......... 228
Figure 123 - Scenario II – East Asia & Oceania – UAVs for Border Security
Procurement Forecast Share by System Type by [%] – 2013, 2017 and
2021 .............................................. 229
Figure 124 - Scenario II – Est Asia & Oceania – UAVs for Border Security
Procurement Forecast Behavior by System Type by [Millions] – 2013-
2021 .............................................. 229
Figure 125 - East Asia & Oceania – Scenario I vs. Scenario II Comparison – UAVs
for Border Security Procurement Forecast by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 ........ 230
10. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles for Border Security – Global Procurement Forecast by
System Type – 2013-2021
Figure 126 - 2009 Sales Snapshot by UAV Type .......................... 232
Figure 127 - Scenario I UAVs for Border Security – Global Procurement Forecast by
System Type by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 .......................... 233
Figure 128 - Scenario I UAVs for Border Security – Global Procurement Forecast
Share by System Type by [%] – 2013, 2017 and 2021 ................. 234
Figure 129 - Scenario I UAVs Border Security– Global Procurement Forecast
Behavior by System Type by [%] – 2013-2021 .................... 235
Figure 130 - Scenario I – Global Micro UAV for Border Security Procurement
Forecast by Region by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 ...................... 236
Figure 131 - Scenario I – Global Micro UAV for Border Security Procurement
Forecast Share by Region by [%] – 2013, 2017 and 2021 ............... 238
Figure 132 - Scenario I – Global Micro UAV for Border Security Procurement
Forecast Behavior by Region by [%] – 2013-2021 .................. 239
Figure 133 - Scenario I – Global Low Altitude UAV for Border Security Procurement
Forecast by Region by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 ...................... 240
Figure 134 - Scenario I – Global Low Altitude UAV for Border Security Procurement
Forecast Share by Region by [%] – 2013, 2017 and 2021 ............... 242
Figure 135 - Scenario I – Global Low Altitude UAV for Border Security Procurement
Forecast Behavior by Region by [%] – 2013-2021 .................. 243
Figure 136 - Scenario I – Global Medium Altitude UAV for Border Security
Procurement Forecast by Region by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 ............. 244
Figure 137 - Scenario I – Global Medium Altitude UAV for Border Security
Procurement Forecast Share by Region by [%] – 2013, 2017 and 2021 ..... 246
Figure 138 - Scenario I – Global Medium Altitude UAV for Border Security
Procurement Forecast Behavior by Region by [%] – 2013-2021 ........... 247
Figure 139 - Scenario I Global High Altitude UAVs for Border Security Procurement
Forecast by Region by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 ...................... 248
Figure 140 - Scenario I Global High Altitude UAVs for Border Security Procurement
Forecast Share by Region by [%] – 2013, 2017 and 2021 ............... 250
Figure 141 - Scenario I – Global High Altitude UAV for Border Security Procurement
Forecast Behavior by Region by [%] – 2013-2021 .................. 251
11. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles for Border Security – Global Operations & Maintenance
Market Forecast by System Type (Scenario I) – 2013-2021
Figure 142 - Scenario I Global UAVs for Border Security Operation and Maintenance
Market Forecast by System Type by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 ............. 254
Figure 143 - Scenario I Global UAVs for Border Security Operation and Maintenance
Forecast Share by System Type by [%] – 2013, 2017 and 2021 ........... 255
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) for Border Security – Global Market & Technologies Outlook – 2013 - 2021
Figure 144 - Scenario I Global UAVs for Border Security Operation and Maintenance
Forecast Behavior by System Type by [%] – 2013-2021 .............. 255
12. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles for Border Security – Market Forecast by System Type
(Scenario I) – 2013-2021
Figure 145 - Scenario I UAVs for Border Security Market Forecast by Type [$Millions]
– 2013-2021 ........................................... 256
Figure 146 - Scenario I UAVs for Border Security Market Forecast Share by
Technology by [%] – 2013, 2017 and 2021 ....................... 257
Figure 147 - Scenario I UAVs for Border Security Market Forecast Sharing Behavior
by Technology by [%] – 2013-2021 ............................ 258


List of Tables

2. Executive Summary
Table 1 - Scenario I Global UAV Procurement Forecast by Region [$Millions] – 2013-
2021 ................................................ 58
Table 2 - Scenario I UAVs for Border Security Procurement Forecast by Region by
[$Millions] – 2013-2021 ..................................... 60
Table 3 - Scenario I UAVs for Border Security Procurement Forecast Share by
Region by [%] – 2013-2021 ................................. 62

3. UAV Industry – Current Technologies
Table 4 - Joint UAV Group Classification (JCOE CONOPS) .................... 68
7. How to Sell Border Security UAVs
Table 5 - Range of Opinions on Global UAV Procurement by [$Millions] – 2010–2015 .... 145
Table 6 - DoD UAV Spending Forecast by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 ................ 149
8. Global UAV Procurement Forecast by Region – 2013-2021
Table 7 - US Border Security Self-Assessment ............................. 155
Table 8 - North America: US Military-Related Foreign Aid Funds [$Thousand] – 2009 ..... 158
Table 9 - South America: US Military-Related Foreign Aid Funds [$Thousand] – 2009 .... 161
Table 10 - European US Military-Related Foreign Aid Funds [$Thousand] – 2009 ........ 165
Table 11 - Near East – US Military-Related Foreign Aid Funds [$Thousand] – 2009 ..... 167
Table 12 - Central Asia – US Military-Related Foreign Aid Funds [$Thousand] – 2009 .... 170
Table 13 - Africa: US Military-Related Foreign Aid Funds [$Thousand] - 2009 ......... 172
Table 14 – East Asia and Western Pacific – US Military-Related Foreign Aid Funds
[$Thousand] – 2009 ..................................... 175
Table 15 - Scenario I Global UAV Procurement Forecast by Region [$Millions] –
2013-2021 ........................................... 177
Table 16 - Scenario I Global UAV Market Forecast Share by Region [%] – 2013-2021 .... 178
Table 17 - Scenario II Global UAV Procurement Forecast by Region [$Millions] –
2013-2021 ........................................... 180
Table 18 - Scenario II Global UAV Procurement Forecast Share by Region [%] –
2013-2021 ........................................... 180
9. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles for Border Security – Procurement Forecast by Region –
2013-2021
Table 19 - Scenario I – Global Border Security UAV Procurement Forecast by Region
by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 ................................. 182
Table 20 - Scenario I – Global Border Security UAV Procurement Forecast Share by
Region by [%] – 2013-2021 .................................. 184
Table 21 - Scenario II Global Border Security UAV Procurement Forecast by Region
by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 ................................. 186
Table 22 - Scenario II Global Border Security UAV Procurement Forecast Share by
Region by [%] – 2013-2021 .................................. 187
Table 23 - Scenario I African UAVs for Border Security – Procurement Forecast by
System Type by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 .......................... 189
Table 24 - Scenario I African UAVs for Border Security Procurement Forecast Share
by System Type by [%] – 2013-2021 .......................... 190
Table 25 - Scenario II African UAVs for Border Security Procurement Forecast by
System Type by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 .......................... 192
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) for Border Security – Global Market & Technologies Outlook – 2013 - 2021
Table 26 - Scenario II African UAVs for Border Security Procurement Forecast Share
by System Type by [%] – 2013-2021 .......................... 193
Table 27 - Africa – Scenario I vs. Scenario II Comparison – UAVs for Border Security
Procurement Forecast by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 .................. 195
Table 28 - Scenario I Central Asian UAVs for Border Security Procurement Forecast
by System Type by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 ........................ 196
Table 29 - Scenario I Central Asian UAVs for Border Security Procurement Forecast
Share by System Type by [%] – 2013-2021 ...................... 197
Table 30 - Scenario II Central Asian UAVs for Border Security Procurement Forecast
by System Type by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 ........................ 199
Table 31 - Scenario II Central Asian UAVs for Border Security Procurement Forecast
Share by System Type by [%] – 2013-2021 ...................... 200
Table 32 - Central Asia Scenario I vs. Scenario II Comparison – UAVs for Border
Security Procurement Forecast by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 ............. 201
Table 33 - Scenario I European UAVs for Border Security Procurement Forecast by
System Type by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 .......................... 202
Table 34 - Scenario I European UAVs for Border Security Procurement Forecast
Share by System Type by [%] – 2013-2021 ...................... 204
Table 35 - Scenario II European UAVs for Border Security Procurement Forecast by
System Type by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 .......................... 205
Table 36 - Scenario II European UAVs for Border Security – Procurement Forecast
Share by System Type by [%] – 2013-2021 ...................... 206
Table 37 - Europe – Scenario I vs. Scenario II Comparison – UAVs for Border
Security Procurement Forecast by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 ............. 207
Table 38 - Scenario I Near Eastern UAVs for Border Security Procurement Forecast
by System Type by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 ........................ 208
Table 39 - Scenario II Near Eastern UAVs for Border Security Procurement Forecast
by System Type by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 ........................ 210
Table 40 - Near East – Scenario I vs. Scenario II Comparison – UAVs for Border
Security Procurement Forecast by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 ............. 212
Table 41 - Scenario I North American UAVs for Border Security Procurement
Forecast by System Type by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 .................. 213
Table 42 - Scenario I North American UAVs for Border Security Procurement
Forecast Share by System Type by [%] – 2013-2021 ................ 215
Table 43 - Scenario II North American UAVs for Border Security Procurement
Forecast by System Type by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 .................. 216
Table 44 - North America – Scenario I vs. Scenario II Comparison – UAVs for Border
Security Procurement Forecast by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 ............. 218
Table 45 - Scenario I South American UAVs for Border Security Procurement
Forecast by System Type by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 .................. 219
Table 46 - Scenario I South American UAVs for Border Security Procurement
Forecast Share by System Type by [%] – 2013-2021 ................ 220
Table 47 - Scenario II South American UAVs for Border Security Procurement
Forecast by System Type by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 .................. 222
Table 48 - Scenario II South American UAVs for Border Security Procurement
Forecast Share by System Type by [%] – 2013-2021 ................ 223
Table 49 - South America – Scenario I vs. Scenario II Comparison – UAVs for Border
Security Procurement Forecast by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 ............. 224
Table 50 - Scenario I – East Asia & Oceania – UAVs for Border Security
Procurement Forecast by System Type by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 ......... 225
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) for Border Security – Global Market & Technologies Outlook – 2013 - 2021
Table 51 - Scenario I – East Asia & Oceania – UAVs for Border Security
Procurement Forecast Share by System Type by [%] – 2013-2021 ......... 226
Table 52 - Scenario II – East Asia & Oceania – UAVs for Border Security
Procurement Forecast by System Type by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 ......... 228
Table 53 - Scenario II - East Asia & Oceania – UAVs for Border Security
Procurement Forecast Share by System Type by [%] – 2013-2021 ......... 229
Table 54 - East Asia & Oceania – Scenario I vs. Scenario II Comparison – UAVs for
Border Security Procurement Forecast by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 .......... 230
10. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles for Border Security – Global Procurement Forecast by
System Type – 2013-2021
Table 55 - Scenario I UAVs for Border Security – Global Procurement Forecast by
System Type by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 .......................... 233
Table 56 - Scenario I UAVs for Border Security – Global Procurement Forecast
Share by System Type by [%] – 2013-2021 ...................... 234
Table 57 - Scenario I – Global Micro UAV for Border Security Procurement Forecast
by Region by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 ............................ 236
Table 58 - Scenario I – Global Micro UAV for Border Security Procurement Forecast
Share by Region by [%] – 2013-2021 ............................ 238
Table 59 - Scenario I – Global Low Altitude UAV for Border Security Procurement
Forecast by Region by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 ...................... 240
Table 60 - Scenario I – Global Low Altitude UAV for Border Security Procurement
Forecast Share by Region by [%] – 2013-2021 ...................... 242
Table 61 - Scenario I – Global Medium Altitude UAV for Border Security Procurement
Forecast by Region by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 ...................... 244
Table 62 - Scenario I – Global Medium Altitude UAV for Border Security Procurement
Forecast Share by Region by [%] – 2013-2021 ...................... 246
Table 63 - Scenario I Global High Altitude UAVs for Border Security Procurement
Forecast by Region by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 ...................... 248
Table 64 - Scenario I Global High Altitude UAVs for Border Security Procurement
Forecast Share by Region by [%] – 2013-2021 ...................... 250
11. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles for Border Security – Global Operations & Maintenance
Market Forecast by System Type (Scenario I) – 2013-2021
Table 65 - US Border Fence Operations & Maintenance Costs .................... 252
Table 66 - Scenario I Global UAVs for Border Security Operation and Maintenance
Market Forecast by System Type by [$Millions] – 2013-2021 ............. 253
Table 67 - Scenario I Global UAVs for Border Security Operation and Maintenance
Forecast Share by System Type by [%] – 2013-2021 ................ 254
12. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles for Border Security – Market Forecast by System Type
(Scenario I) – 2013-2021
Table 68 - Scenario I UAVs for Border Security Market Forecast by Type [$Millions] –
2013-2021 ........................................... 256
Table 69 - Scenario I UAVs for Border Security Market Forecast Share by Type by
[%] – 2013-2021 ....................................... 257
Appendices
Table 70 – UAV Exports ........................................... 261
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) for Border Security – Global Market & Technologies Outlook – 2013 - 2021

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